Basic Assumption problems

When discussing any topic, it is vitally important that your basic assumptions are correct. It doesn't matter if you are the most logical person in the world, if you begin your reasoning with "Elves are running our government" your conclusion is more than likely going to be incorrect. Here are some common mistakes when making assumptions in a debate.

1. Reaching definate conclusions based on generalizations
Example: Statistically, men are stronger than women. Therefore, no woman
could every outlift any man.

2. Ignoring other characteristics when reaching conclusions
Example: I am alive. Frogs are alive. Therefore, I am a frog.

3. Ignoring observed phenomena in favor of what someone tells you
Example: I saw my husband kissing another woman in the park, but since
he said he was going out of town, it must have been someone else.

4. Focusing on a single characteristic in a complex situation
Example: OJ Simpson was arrested for one reason: because he was black.

5. Using lack of evidence to reach conclusions
Example: I've never seen Bob punch anyone. Therefore, he must be a wimp.

6. Circular Reasoning
Example: Pete carries an axe because he is a fireman, and we know he's a fireman because he carries an axe.

7. Snowball Theory (also called the slippery slope)
Example: If I don't buy this candy bar the store could go broke, causing people to lose their jobs and be unable to buy anything; which will cause a loss in sales, a dropping of profits, and the companies will be forced to start laying people off, which could result in a depression; this would mean a drop in stocks, a loss of money, mass suicides, banks running out of money, and finally the total collapse of western society. So I'd better buy this candy bar.

8. Failing to recognize essential characteristics.
Example: An axe with a seven inch blade will break down a door in twenty seconds, so a four inch knife should be able to do it in forty seconds.
Cause and Effect Mistakes
Cause and effect are important things to consider in certain areas of discussion, especially in history or the applied sciences. Obviously cause and effect are a chain of events: what affects one thing effects something else, and so on. Here are some of the more common mistakes in logical thinking when people are discussing causes and effects.

1. Confusing Cause with Effect
Example: Wearing large dresses makes you look fat.

2. Failing to recognize multiple Causes
Example: The Roman Empire fell because the barbarians invaded.

3. Confusing independent events with Cause and Effect
Example: Napolean sold Louisiana to America. Napolean lost at Waterloo.
Therefore, if Napolean had kept Louisiana he would have won.

4. Not recognizing a cause-effect relationship
Example: What does not exercising have to do with my weight problem?

5. Confusing a correlation with cause and effect
Example: Serial killers chew gum. Therefore, they kill because of gum.

6. Assuming cause-effect rather than coincidence
Example: John is a doctor. Paul killed John. Therefore, Paul killed John because he was a doctor.

7. Failure to recognize multiple Effects
Example: Hitler's a good guy, since he improved Germany's economy.

8. Failure to recognize that a cause doesn't always lead to the effect.
Example: I've smoked for years and haven't gotten cancer, therefore smoking doesn't cause cancer.

Theories and Occam's Razor
"plurality should not be posited without necessity" wrote William of Ockham almost seven hundred years ago. The idea he was trying to convey, the idea we today call "Occam's Razor" is that if there is more than one theory that explains something, and both are equally valid, the simpler one should be assumed to be the correct one.
For example, scientists at the start of this century believed in an unmeasurable substance called "Ether". It was to explain a great many ideas of physics. The theory of ether was eventually discarded because scientists were able to explain things just as well without ether, so ether was an unnecessary part of physics. This is an example of applying Occam's Razor; choosing a simpler theory out of two when both equally explain all the facts. What follows are mistakes people make with theories in general and Occam's Razor in particular.

1. Ignoring Occam's Razor
Example: Sure, the Mayans could have been wiped out by a disease, but isn't
it just as likely that they were carried off by aliens?

2. Mis-applying Occam's Razor
Example: The simplest explanation for the Apollo moon landings is that they
were faked.

3. Failing to understand that one theory can't always explain everything
Example: Your theory on bacteria doesn't explain why yogurt tastes good, so it
must be wrong.

4. Reaching a conclusion with no evidence
Example: The Roanoke colony disappeared because they developed
time travel technology.

5. Giving equal balance to a theory who's only strength is that it
cannot be disproved.
Example: You can't prove gnomes don't exist, so it's just as reasonable to assume that they do.

6. Demanding opponents disprove your theory rather than you supporting it.
Example: Prove that a monkey can't be trained to juggle.

7. Confusing theory with evidence.
Example: Denying that the sun goes around the earth is admitting you are ignoring the evidence of your own eyes.

Faulty Analogies
Analogies are a great way to convey ideas: take a simple comparison and apply it to something more complex. For example, a colony depends on a country the way a child depends on its parent. However, analogies are also an area where logic falls apart, and all sorts of bizarre conclusions can be reached.

1. Applying a flawed analogy to an argument
Example: You can get a computer to control a rocket, therefore you can get
your toaster to drive your car.

2. Extending an analogy beyond its logical limits
Example: Electricity flows through wires like water through a hose. Therefore,
you can stop the electricity by pinching the cord.

3. Extrapolation without understanding the mechanics involved
Example: You can train a dog to fetch a stick, therefore you can train it to play the
piano.

4. Extrapolation beyond all logic
Example: I can lift two hundred pounds easily. Therefore, I can pick up the Sear's Tower.

5. Irrelevant comparisons
Example: A cow's a better pet than a sperm whale.


Experts
Experts are just that: someone who has demonstrated that they have a great deal of knowledge in a certain area. Of course, experts can and do make mistakes, but it would be silly to ignore the advice of an expert on the possibility that they may be in error when you are not an expert yourself. The most important thing to do is consider what the expert says. Is it logical? Is it consistent? Does it agree with what is known on the subject? Can general statements be verified? An expert should not be followed like lemmings, but nor should their expertise be ignored.

1. Ignoring the information of an expert without reason
Example: You may have a degree in medicine, but I still don't believe I have a spleen.

2. Intelligence by osmosis
Example: My mother is a lawyer, so I know what you're doing is illeagal.

3. Failing to realize that information is lost when passed along
Example: I told my Chemistry professor your theory on chemical bonds and he
thinks it's wrong, so it must be.

4. Accepting the advice of a known idiot
Example: I know Bill said that it rains donuts, but that doesn't mean he doesn't
know anything about weather.

5. Considering oneself an expert with no training
Example: Who says you need to go to school to learn demolitions.

6. Failure to grasp statistics
Example: I won three games of Russian Roulette, therefore the game is safe.



Deceitfulness
The first completely new category added to logical flaws. These arguements are usually employed by someone who is deliberately trying to cloud the issue rather than discuss things rationally. Not exactly stupid, they take great effort to accomplish nothing.

1. The Strawman tactic (attributing foolish arguments to your opponent)
Example: You say that perjurers should go to jail, but all perjury is is lying. Quite frankly, it's absurd to throw all lyars in prison, and you're a fool for thinking so.

2. Claiming to be misquoted
Example: I didn't mean that Hitler was a good guy, just that I could see why someone might think he's a good guy.

3. The magicians tactic(distracting away from the issue)
Example: My dog was not on your lawn, and why haven't your bushes been trimmed.

4. Ignoring the issue by accusing the opponent
Example: Guess what Mr. Kettle, you're black.

5. Making the opponent the issue instead of the argument
Example: That sounds just like something a bigot would say.

6. Characterizing the opponent
Example: Of course you don't agree with my theory; most people with prejudices don't.


Plain Stupidity
Crossing all kinds of logical boundaries, these are ideas that show the world that not only are you illogical, you are also an idiot. Avoid them like the plague!

1. Assuming that everyone is like you
Example: I don't know anything about Biology, therefore you don't either.

2. Failure to understand that words have definitions
Example: The president isn't a criminal just because he broke the law.

3. Believing special circumstances are the norm
Example: A doctor stole a man's kidney to make money. Therefore, all doctors are
untrustworthy and greedy.

4. Failure to grasp what is real
Example: If I had to, I could deliver a baby. I've seen it hundreds of times on television.

5. Demonstrating that common sense requires effort on your part
Example: If we could drive faster, we'd get there much sooner.

6. Demonstrating supreme ignorance in the topic being discussed
Example: If we just print more money, everybody could be rich.

7. Attacking the opponent instead of the argument
Example: Sure, you know more about literature, but that's because I have a life

8. Attempting to use stereotypes as logical facts
Example: A woman can never become president because they spend too much time
buying shoes.

9. Blatant hypocrisy
Example: Only a brainless idiot with his head up his butt would behave as rudely as you do!

10. Demanding the Impossible
Example: I will not accept General Relativity unless I am sent a letter by Albert Einstein himself.

11. Thinking everyone who disagrees with you has the same argument
Example: If you're not a Catholic, then you must be an athiest.

12. Believing research is required to state the obvious
Example: You haven't even bothered looking at Zeppler's Zoology book, so what makes you think you can tell me that fish don't have hair?

13. Complete close-mindedness
Example: I am right and you are wrong, I won't speak to you any more on this.

14. Believing "possible" makes something likely
Example: It's possible AIDS was created by the CIA, therefore, we should get rid of the CIA so they won't do it again.

15. Self-contradicting coupled with a refusal to consider alternate theories
(thanks to Graeme Dice for the example)
Example: Someone hands me something they call a "hat", although it looks exactly like a shoe. Despite it looking like a shoe, I put it on my head anyway. I then claim that the manufacturers of this "hat" are idiots, because it looks like a shoe and not a hat.

16. Questioning known facts only because they hurt your argument
Example: Your theory doesn't take into account the possibility that George Washington may still be alive.

17. Taking quotes out of context.
Example: "Everything that's supposed to be down is up." This quote by Al Gore shows his opposition to Clinton's sexual practices.

18. Believing something is possible if it hasn't been tried
Example: Perhaps if we all line up on the shore and blow at the same time, the hurricane will change direction.

19. I am the world
Example: I will not allow the tyranny of the majority to force me to wear pants.

20. Making assumptions without evidence
Example: We can calculate the moon's mass by using the density of cheese, which is what the moon is made of.

21. My unproven assumptions are the only reasonable ones
Example: It's ludicrous that you believe a nuclear bomb is over a trillion times the power of a stick of dynamite; it's probably only about a billion.

22. One means all.
Example: If Bill, Tom, and Fred are in a room and Jane slaps Bill, she must also have slapped Tom and Fred.

23. Delusions of Mediocrity (believing one's theories are being ignored by short-sited people when in reality you're just wrong).
Example: People laughed at Einstein too, but what does history say about him? That he was right. You'll see.....

24. Assuming an single member of a group represents all members of that group(cr: Dave).
Example: Brian, a Rolling Stones fan, likes to eat peanuts. Therefore, all Rolling Stones fans like to eat peanuts.






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Chuck vs. Summer Blockbusters

Chuck vs. Battlefield Earth

Chuck's Laws

Chuck vs. Usenet 3

Chuck vs. Usenet 2: Hatemail

Chuck vs. Entertainment

Chuck vs. Usenet, Part I

Moron Watching

Chuck vs. The Internet

Why I No Longer Debate Idiots

Chuck vs. "Bioethics"

Chuck vs. Cold Fusion

Chuck vs. Parent

Chuck vs. Jehovah's Witness

Monty Python: A lesson in logical thought


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